Đáp số: 0,57.

Gọi A_i là biến cố lần thứ i lấy được thẻ chẵn ( \({\rm{i}} = 1,2,3\) ). Ta cần tính

\({\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \mid {{\rm{A}}_2}} \right) = \frac{{{\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2}} \right)}}{{{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}} \right)}}\)

\({\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right) = \frac{7}{{15}},{\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right) = \frac{8}{{15}},{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}\mid {{\rm{A}}_1}} \right) = \frac{6}{{14}} = \frac{3}{7},{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}\mid \overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right) = \frac{7}{{14}} = \frac{1}{2}\)

\({\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}} \right) = {\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}\mid {{\rm{A}}_1}} \right) + {\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}\mid \overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right) = \frac{7}{{15}} \cdot \frac{3}{7} + \frac{8}{{15}} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{7}{{15}}\)

\({\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2}} \right) = {\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2}\;{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right) + {\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2}\overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right)\)

(sử dụng tính chất \({\rm{P}}({\rm{A}}) = {\rm{P}}\left( {{\rm{A}}{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right) + {\rm{P}}\left( {{\rm{A}}\overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right)\) với \(\left. {{\rm{A}} = \overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2}} \right)\).

\({\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2}\;{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right) = {\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \mid {{\rm{A}}_2}\;{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}\;{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right) = {\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \mid {{\rm{A}}_2}\;{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}\mid {{\rm{A}}_1}} \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right)\)

\( = \frac{8}{{13}} \cdot \frac{6}{{14}} \cdot \frac{7}{{15}}\)

\({\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2} \cdot \overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right) = {\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \mid {{\rm{A}}_2}\overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}\overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right) = {\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \mid {{\rm{A}}_2}\overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}\mid \overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right){\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right)\)

\( = \frac{7}{{13}} \cdot \frac{7}{{14}} \cdot \frac{8}{{15}}.\)

\({\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \mid {{\rm{A}}_2}} \right) = \frac{{{\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2}} \right)}}{{{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}} \right)}} = \frac{{{\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2}\;{{\rm{A}}_1}} \right) + {\rm{P}}\left( {\overline {{{\rm{A}}_3}} \;{{\rm{A}}_2}\overline {{{\rm{A}}_1}} } \right)}}{{{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_2}} \right)}} = \frac{{\frac{8}{{13}} \cdot \frac{6}{{14}} \cdot \frac{7}{{15}} + \frac{7}{{13}} \cdot \frac{7}{{14}} \cdot \frac{8}{{15}}}}{{\frac{7}{{15}}}}\)

\( = \frac{{\frac{{7.8}}{{14 \cdot 15}}}}{{\frac{7}{{15}}}} = \frac{8}{{14}} \approx 0,57.\)